How did the junior senator from Illinois go from a distant second with a promising future to the frontrunner (to the extent that there is one) in the race to become the 44th president of the United States? To be sure, with the exception of John McCain becoming the GOP nominee, no predictions as to the outcomes can be made with any meaningful certainty.

In fact, according to RCP analysis of recent polling data, Clinton even trails McCain in head-to-head match-ups. Recent polling data compiled by Real Clear Politics (RCP) show that not only does Barack Obama enjoy a slim lead over Senator Clinton in national opinion polls, he is also the Democratic candidate best positioned to beat the putative Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona. Within the Democratic Party, Senator Clinton is in the fight of her life, and the Republicans are enjoying something of a reprieve as a result of Senator John McCain’s reputation as a maverick and his appeal to independents.

Today, neither of those predictions is certain anymore. Thumbing her nose at recent history, which tends to favour outsiders for the top job, Hillary Clinton would move from senator to president without breaking much of a sweat. President Bush had become so fundamentally unpopular that the November vote would be a « repudiation by proxy » of his presidency and his war. Until recently, conventional wisdom in Washington political circles assumed the Democratic Party would take back the White House in 2008 (as it did the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections of 2006) and that Hillary Clinton would become the first woman to serve in the Oval Office. He would be their presidential nominee one day, but just not in 2008. With a 20-point lead over her rivals in national polls as recently as last November, Hillary Clinton seemed unstoppable, and Barack Obama was a bright young star in the Democratic firmament playing for futures. A few short months ago, the outcome of that primary race seemed a foregone conclusion. One thousand three hundred and fifty-four for Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton’s 1,263: at time of writing, that is the current, total delegate count in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination (according to ).

Yes, We Can! by Barack Obama